Jason Sandman

Current research · 2026 — 2030

The signal,
and the drum.

Applied research on Early Warning for All (EW4All) implementation in Malawi — a Least Developed Country of 20 million — under a Next Generation Leadership Fellowship with the International Sustainable Development Centre.

Community members consulting weather charts and a traditional rainfall almanac
Fig. 04 — TEK in cross-validation

§ 01 · Diagnosis

The WMO Warning Efficiency Model identifies the binding constraint not in satellites — but in community actionability.

P

Accuracy

Forecast precision — increasingly solved by satellite networks and modeling.

C

Coverage

Geographic and demographic reach of the alert pipeline.

A

Action

The binding constraint. Whether a community can — and will — act on the warning.

E_warning = P_accuracy × C_coverage × A_action.  The strategy redirects from infrastructure capex toward governance reform, language access, and cultural integration — where the actual leverage lies.

§ 02 · Methodology

Indigenous Wisdom Integration Protocol (IWIP)

  1. Phase 01

    Knowledge Harvest

    Structured collection of Traditional Ecological Knowledge from community elders, herders, and farmers — phenological cues, animal behavior, water-table indicators.

  2. Phase 02

    Scientific Cross-Validation

    Triangulation of TEK indicators with meteorological time-series and satellite observation, identifying confirmatory and divergent signals.

  3. Phase 03

    Alert Co-Design

    Embedding validated TEK into digital DELTA alert pipelines and a five-stage offline cascade — satellite to drum-based evacuation — engineered for independent stage operation.

§ 03 · Roadmap

Five phases. 28 districts.
A 7× improvement by 2030.

  1. 01

    Foundation

    Governance, language access, baseline.

  2. 02

    Infrastructure

    Comms backbone, anti-procyclicality finance.

  3. 03

    Activation

    First three districts at E > 0.55.

  4. 04

    Deepening

    TEK integration scaled across regions.

  5. 05

    Automation

    Parametric pre-authorized disbursement.

§ 04 · Fellowship curriculum

Next Generation Leadership — 15 modules

High-Level Achiever Track of the International Sustainable Development Centre (Geneva). Three phases bridging diplomacy, strategic impact, and applied research — anchored in the Inner Development Goals (IDGs) as the personal scaffolding for SDG-scale work.

Phase 01

Foundations of Global Governance

  • ·M1 · 2030 Agenda & SDGs deep-dive
  • ·M2 · UN & international organizations (Geneva ecosystem)
  • ·M3 · Diplomacy & multilateral negotiation
  • ·M4 · Global policy analysis & drafting
  • ·M5 · Human rights & international law
  • ·M8 · Stakeholder engagement (Goal 17 alliances)

Phase 02

Strategic Impact & Leadership

  • ·M6 · ESG & corporate sustainability
  • ·M7 · Financing for development & impact investing
  • ·M9 · Innovation & social entrepreneurship
  • ·M10 · Adaptive leadership & change management

Phase 03

Technical Skills & Final Project

  • ·M11 · Digital literacy & frontier tech (AI · blockchain)
  • ·M12 · Strategic communication & storytelling
  • ·M13 · Agile project management for impact
  • ·M14 · Research methodology
  • ·M15 · Capstone presentation & defense

§ 05 · Active research streams

From mentoring sessions
to deliverable policy.

Capstone

August 2026

Analyzing the Sustainable Development Report 2026

Fellowship research paper examining the SDR 2026 through three lenses: regional disparities between top-performing and lagging nations, the twenty-six-year trajectory of SDG 13 (Climate Action), and the gap between public perception and government effort. The analysis finds that Nordic dominance has plateaued since 2021, that climate- and consumption-related goals remain off track even for leaders because of negative international spillovers, and that a Sweden–Malawi comparison illustrates how fiscal space, governance capacity, and conflict exposure drive divergent SDG trajectories.

  • · Only 16.5% of SDG targets globally on track by 2030
  • · International spillovers offset domestic progress in high-income states
  • · Public and expert respondents converge on financing, governance, and data gaps
  • · Policy focus: debt-for-climate, global financing instruments, third-party-verifiable data
Download PDF ↓

Tab 01

Week 1 Reflection

Inner Development Goals & adaptation as a balance-sheet intervention

Opening reflection paper of the NGL Fellowship: situates climate-adaptation consulting inside the Inner Development Goals (IDGs). Reframes adaptation away from cash-flow project logic toward a balance-sheet intervention — preserving value, reducing liabilities, and altering how capital is required and deployed under risk.

  • · IDG ↔ SDG mirror framing
  • · Adaptation as value-preservation, not new revenue
  • · Climate finance gap as systemic, not technical

Tab 02

Module 8

Stakeholder Engagement Blueprint — Philadelphia (SDG 11)

Applied response to the UN DESA 'Stakeholder Engagement and the 2030 Agenda' practical guide. A five-stakeholder blueprint for a sustainable-cities initiative — informing, consulting, involving, and collaborating across traditional and marginalized groups in a US municipal context.

  • · Major Groups & marginalized voices
  • · Inform → consult → involve → collaborate
  • · Empowerment strategies for participation barriers

Tab 03

Module 4

USA–Global Impact Policy Suite

Two-part deliverable: a 1,000-word feasibility-lens critique of an existing UN/EU/World Bank brief, plus an original 1,500-word NGL policy brief targeting a specific mission or partner. Triangulates academic, grey, and field-based evidence with a 'last-mile' implementation test.

  • · Political will · Economic logic · Implementation infrastructure
  • · Status-quo vs. NGL recommendation table
  • · Explicit diplomatic/financial ask

Tab 04

25 Feb 2026

UNHCR Ukraine briefing — situational read

Working notes on Philippe Leclerc's Palais des Nations press briefing: 10.8M needing assistance inside Ukraine, 3.7M IDPs, 5.9M refugees abroad. Argues for alternative long-stay options beyond Temporary Protection and for a Resilience-Informed legal status for the most vulnerable.

Tab 05

5th Year of Conflict

The Evolution of Displacement — Ukraine 2026

Capstone on protracted displacement: 10.8M needing assistance inside Ukraine, 3.7M IDPs, 5.9M refugees across Europe. Reframes 'safe return' around energy security, legal restitution, and psychosocial stability, and challenges the 'burden myth' via the Poland case (2.7% GDP contribution, 83% labor participation).

Tab 06

Sendai Framework

DRR 2015–2030 — from disaster management to risk management

Research brief on the four Sendai priorities and seven global targets. Anchors the practice in Priority 1 (understanding risk through data and indigenous knowledge) and Priority 4 (Build Back Better), and connects directly to the EW4All actionability gap.

  • · Priority 1 · Understanding risk
  • · Priority 2 · DRR governance
  • · Priority 3 · Investing in resilience
  • · Priority 4 · Build Back Better

Tab 09

8 April 2026

Malawi Impact Blueprint + Shire Valley Data Protocol

Transitions the Malawi roadmap from policy strategy to a working 'Impact Blueprint' with a phased last-mile target, a designated lead ministry, a 90-day multi-stakeholder convening agenda, and a Rᵢ calculation on the $17.9M Phase-1 budget exceeding the $14-per-$1 lighthouse benchmark.

  • · Operational last-mile metric
  • · Lead ministry + 90-day convening
  • · Rᵢ on $17.9M Phase-1 budget
  • · Gender-disaggregated Shire Valley data points

Tab 10

15 & 28 April 2026

Hazard Information Profiles (HIPs) — UNDRR-ISC framework analysis

Literature review and presentation walking the 2025 UNDRR-ISC HIPs taxonomy (281 hazards across 8 clusters), profiling MH0703 Storm Surge in full, tracing a cascade into coastal erosion and waterborne disease, and assessing the implications of the 2025 machine-actionable release for AI-augmented early warning.

  • · 8 hazard types × 281 profiles
  • · MH0703 Storm Surge — full anatomy
  • · Cross-cluster cascade reasoning
  • · Machine-readability → AI-augmented EWS

Tab 07

18 March 2026

EW4All 2027 — Last-Mile Implementation Roadmap (Malawi)

The flagship 2,500-word commissioned strategic assignment. Argues that high P_accuracy is useless when A_action is low, and proposes shifting 15% of national emergency-response budget into pre-disaster communication infrastructure. Visualized as a satellite-to-village-elder cascade.

  • · AI risk knowledge × indigenous wisdom
  • · DELTA Resilience data sync
  • · Impact-based forecasting
  • · 5-year national timeline (2026–2030)

Tab 08

G-DRSF

G-DRSF Implementation Challenge — Shire Valley protocol

District-level resilience data protocol bridging the National Statistical Office and National Disaster Management Office. Operationalizes exposure × vulnerability × coping capacity into impact-based forecast alerts (e.g., 'the Msamba bridge will be submerged; Zone B residents evacuate to the primary school solar shelter now').

  • · Exposure · Vulnerability · Coping capacity
  • · Impact-Based Forecast alert drafting
  • · NSO ↔ NDMO coordination mechanism

Tab 11

6 May 2026

Poland — protracted refugee integration & ReliefWeb monitoring

Operational read on ~1M displaced Ukrainians in Poland: pivot from emergency relief to integration, the closure of collective shelters affecting 34,000 people, and the Migration Strategy 2030's 49 integration centers. Includes live monitoring of the Lublin-region wildfire response.

Tab 12

13 May 2026

C40 Urban Planning — climate-resilient & inclusive cities

Research stream on the 15-Minute City, urban density and infill, green public space, and tactical urbanism. Evaluates transit-oriented development and nature-based placemaking as primary levers for emissions reduction and heat/flood protection of vulnerable residents.

  • · 15-Minute City equity tests
  • · TOD & infill over sprawl
  • · NbS for heat islands & stormwater
  • · Tactical urbanism & school streets

Tab 13

WUF13 · Baku · 17–22 May 2026

World Cities Report 2026 — NGL response framework

Response to WCR 2026's baseline (3.4B without adequate housing, 1B in informal settlements, 133M globally displaced, 64M evicted 2003–2023). Three deliverables: informality mapping & incremental upgrading, housing-emissions retrofit strategy (buildings = 37% of global GHG), and eviction-prevention municipal policy memo.

  • · ≥40% community-led co-design
  • · Net-reduction in localized climate vulnerability
  • · Blended municipal/PPP finance
  • · Disaggregated data accountability

Tab 14

10 June 2026

International convening track — Nobel Week Dialogue, Malawi & Kenya

Operational planning for the international convening calendar: Nobel Prize Dialogue / Nobel Week Dialogue (Sweden, December), Parliamentarian presentation in Malawi, and resource-person engagement in Kenya. Pairs each engagement with a specific NGL deliverable and a follow-up publication target.

Tab 15

10 June 2026

NGO formation & technical-financial proposal track

Strategic agenda for proposal drafting: NGO formation feasibility scan across candidate countries, synergy mapping, MOU drafting templates, and a paired technical + financial proposal. Builds on the Malawi roadmap and the G-DRSF Shire Valley protocol as the anchor delivery case.

  • · NGO country scan + MOU template
  • · Technical proposal draft
  • · Financial proposal draft
  • · Mentor review · 24 June 2026

§ 06 · Hazard science & the Eastern Corridor

Standardized hazard language,
and data that crosses the border.

A second research line, parallel to the Malawi work: the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (HIPs) as the scientific reference layer beneath Sendai reporting, and its application to cross-border risk governance across Poland, Romania, Ukraine and the wider Eastern European corridor.

281

UNDRR–ISC hazard profiles across 8 hazard types (2025 edition)

€650bn

Cost of EU natural hazards, 1980–2022

4

TEN-T European Transport Corridors extended to Ukraine & Moldova

Feb 2025

Baltic BRELL decoupling completed — new continental grid dependency

Hazard science

April 2026

Read paper →

Analyzing global risks through Hazard Information Profiles (HIPs)

Full framework analysis of the joint UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles: 281 standardized profiles organized across eight hazard types (meteorological & hydrological, extraterrestrial, geological, environmental, chemical, biological, technological, societal). HIPs give governments, UN agencies and practitioners a single scientific vocabulary — a prerequisite for coherent Sendai Framework reporting, because hazards do not respect administrative borders.

  • · 8 hazard types × 281 standardized profiles
  • · Unified vocabulary as a Sendai reporting prerequisite
  • · Interoperable loss data across national databases
  • · 2025 edition: first machine-actionable release

Profile anatomy

MH0703

Read paper →

Storm Surge (MH0703) and multi-hazard cascade reasoning

A worked anatomy of a single profile: storm surge as the abnormal rise of seawater above predicted astronomical tide, driven by wind stress and the inverted barometer effect (~10 mm of sea-level rise per millibar of pressure drop), amplified by coastline geometry, bathymetry and storm translation speed. The analysis then traces the cascade — accelerated coastal erosion in the environmental/geological cluster, and saltwater intrusion, sewage release and waterborne disease (cholera, typhoid, hepatitis A, leptospirosis) in the biological cluster.

  • · Storm surge vs. storm tide — the definitional distinction
  • · Cascade: surge → erosion → freshwater contamination
  • · Shared hazard codes end the 'the flood receded, we're done' handoff failure
  • · Monitoring stack: tide gauges, barometric pressure, wind vectors, bathymetry

Machine-readability

2025 update

Read paper →

Machine-actionable hazard data and AI-augmented early warning

The 2025 HIPs update ships a structured, machine-actionable dataset rather than PDFs alone. That shift lets an early-warning platform query the HIP database directly — recognizing that a monitored surge (MH0703) is statistically linked to downstream erosion and waterborne-disease risk, and firing pre-coded multi-agency alerts across public health, engineering and emergency management simultaneously. It also makes cross-border risk comparison tractable, positioning the HIPs as the semantic backbone of a global, AI-augmented risk infrastructure under Early Warnings for All.

  • · PDF reference → structured queryable dataset
  • · Auto-linked hazard cascades and pre-coded alerts
  • · EW4All pipelines fusing satellite, radar, IoT and social signals
  • · Cross-national comparability via shared hazard codes

Poland · Romania · Ukraine

March 2026

Read paper →

Transboundary Resilience in the Eastern Corridor — the PRU Protocol

Policy paper proposing a Multi-Hazard Transboundary Protocol for the Poland–Romania–Ukraine corridor, aligned with the DPPI SEE 2026 interoperability standards agreed at the Durrës Workshop (February 2026) and Article 6 of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism. It addresses the structural transformation of Eastern European risk governance after a decade of strategic decoupling from Soviet-era and Russian-controlled infrastructure.

  • · DPPI SEE 2026 interoperability standards (Durrës, Feb 2026)
  • · UCPM Article 6 alignment
  • · Copernicus Observia AI + EU Risk Data Hub integration
  • · 2026 Galileo Emergency Warning Satellite Service

Decoupling

Section 1

Read paper →

TEN-T reconfiguration and the disaster-logistics gap

Regulation (EU) 2024/1679 removed Russia and Belarus from TEN-T core network status and extended four European Transport Corridors to Ukraine and Moldova. But gauge incompatibility at the Ukrainian border (1520 mm Soviet vs. 1435 mm European standard) still imposes transhipment delays of hours per freight train — directly degrading humanitarian aid delivery timelines in a regional disaster. The Suwałki Corridor remains the single land route between Lithuania and Poland that avoids Russian or Belarusian territory, and is simultaneously among the most contested strips of land in Europe.

  • · Regulation (EU) 2024/1679 — permanent architectural shift
  • · 1520 mm ↔ 1435 mm gauge break as an aid-delivery constraint
  • · Suwałki Corridor and the Kaliningrad bottleneck
  • · Polish, Romanian and Slovak logistics hubs for UCPM Ukraine operations

Poly-crisis

Section 2

Read paper →

Baltic energy disruption as a cascading poly-crisis

With BRELL decoupling completed in February 2025, the Baltic states now sit on the Continental European Network. Grid disruption in one Baltic state triggers frequency instability across the newly integrated link — and unlike the BRELL era, there is no Moscow to call for stabilization. Recovery instead requires EU-level coordination that has not yet been operationalized at the speed a cascading crisis demands.

  • · BRELL inheritance → CEN synchronization
  • · Frequency instability as stage-one shock
  • · Coordination latency as the real vulnerability

Danube Basin

Section 3

Read paper →

Extreme heat as a governance failure, not a weather event

The invisible hazard of the Eastern Corridor. The 1994 Sofia Convention, implemented through the ICPDR, obliges parties to share 'reasonably available data' on environmental conditions — including heat discharge — but it provides no mechanism for real-time adjudication of competing water-withdrawal rights during an acute thermal crisis. Heat in the Danube Basin is therefore a legal-fragmentation problem before it is a meteorological one.

  • · Sofia Convention (1994) & ICPDR data-sharing duties
  • · No real-time withdrawal-rights adjudication mechanism
  • · Thermal stress on cooling, navigation and public health

Method

Section 4

Read paper →

The Cross-Border Interoperability Index (I_xb)

The paper's analytical core: a formalization relating shared data, aligned legal protocols and the hazard differential between cooperating states. Where the differential is high — one state with AI-enabled forecasting, its neighbour with manual systems — the index exposes a Resilience Chasm. Sustainable interoperability, drawing on Geneva Call's 2025 Permanent Institutional Recovery framing, cannot rest on donor-funded training rounds; it requires bilateral data-sharing agreements embedded in national emergency law.

  • · Shared data × legal alignment ÷ hazard differential
  • · Resilience Chasm as a measurable regional deficit
  • · Permanent Institutional Recovery over temporary technical assistance
  • · Four-pillar Multi-Hazard Transboundary Protocol architecture

Displacement

2026

Read paper →

Protracted displacement across Ukraine and its host states

The humanitarian counterpart to the infrastructure work: 10.8M people needing assistance inside Ukraine, 3.7M internally displaced and 5.9M refugees across Europe. The Poland case dismantles the 'burden myth' — a 2.7% GDP contribution and 83% of refugee households with at least one employed member — while Poland's Migration Strategy 2030 and its 49 integration centers mark the pivot from emergency relief to durable integration.

  • · 10.8M in need · 3.7M IDPs · 5.9M refugees
  • · Poland: 2.7% GDP contribution, 83% labor participation
  • · Collective shelter closures affecting 34,000 people
  • · Resilience-Informed legal status beyond Temporary Protection

Working thesis

“Data that does not cross the border is equivalent to emergency vehicles that cannot cross the border.”

A high hazard differential — one state running AI-enabled forecasting while its neighbour relies on manual systems — creates a structural Resilience Chasm that degrades the whole region's protective capacity. Digital interoperability is the new frontier of Eastern European security.

Publications & deliverables

Selected writing

All Malawi papers →
  • 2026

    EW4All 2027 — Last-Mile Implementation Roadmap for Malawi→

    International Sustainable Development Centre · NGL Fellowship

    EW4AllMalawiLast-MileImpact-Based Forecasting

    A 2,500-word commissioned strategic assignment arguing that high forecast accuracy (P) is useless when community actionability (A) is low. Proposes a satellite-to-village-elder cascade across 28 districts to reach E > 0.55 by 2030.

  • 2026

    Indigenous Wisdom Integration Protocol (IWIP)→

    Methodological working paper · NGL Fellowship

    IWIPTEKMethodologyCultural Integration

    Structured collection, scientific cross-validation, and co-design of TEK indicators into digital DELTA alert pipelines and a five-stage offline cascade engineered for independent stage operation.

  • 2026

    G-DRSF Shire Valley Resilience Data Protocol→

    G-DRSF Implementation Challenge · NGL Fellowship

    G-DRSFImpact-Based ForecastingData GovernanceShire Valley

    Operationalizes exposure × vulnerability × coping capacity into named-asset alerts ('the Msamba bridge will be submerged; Zone B residents evacuate to the primary school solar shelter now').

  • 2026

    DELTA Resilience — Data Sync Architecture for Malawi→

    Technical note · NGL Fellowship

    DELTAData ArchitectureInteroperabilityMalawi

    Specifies the minimum-viable data spine connecting NSO, NDMO, NMS, MoH, and district EOCs so that impact-based forecasts can be composed in real time.

  • 2026

    Anti-Procyclical Disaster Finance for Malawi→

    Policy memo · NGL Fellowship

    Climate FinanceParametricAnti-ProcyclicalityMalawi

    Argues for shifting from reactive humanitarian appeals to pre-authorized parametric triggers tied to rainfall, river-stage, and cyclone track thresholds.

  • 2026

    Stakeholder Engagement Blueprint — Philadelphia (SDG 11)→

    NGL Fellowship · Module 8 deliverable

    SDG 11Stakeholder EngagementMunicipalPhiladelphia

    Five-stakeholder blueprint mapping a Sustainable Cities & Communities initiative across traditional and historically marginalized groups, using the inform → consult → involve → collaborate ladder.

  • 2026

    Community Climate Resilience Accelerator (CCRA) — FEMA Policy Brief→

    NGL Fellowship · Module 4 — USA-Global Impact Policy Suite

    FEMASDG 13Climate AdaptationPolicy Brief

    Two-part deliverable: a feasibility-lens critique of the UN Inter-Agency brief on SDG Localization, plus an original 1,500-word brief proposing a $5B over 5-year Community Climate Resilience Accelerator (CCRA).

  • 2026

    The Evolution of Displacement — Ukraine 2026→

    NGL Fellowship · capstone research brief + 12-slide deck

    DisplacementUkrainePolandIntegration

    Reframes 'safe return' around energy security, legal restitution, and psychosocial stability; challenges the 'burden myth' with the Poland case (2.7% GDP contribution, 83% labor participation).

  • 2026

    The Intersection of Conflict and Climate — Sendai 2026→

    NGL Fellowship · 2,000-word research paper

    Sendai FrameworkUNDRRUkraineClimate-Conflict Nexus

    Argues that Ukraine's degraded grid converts a 'regular' winter into a Sendai Priority-1 multi-hazard cascade, and applies the Resilience Investment Ratio Rᵢ to argue $1 → $4 returns from anticipatory action.

  • 2026

    Bangladesh EW4All — Cyclonic Resilience Roadmap→

    NGL Fellowship · Assignment #2 follow-on

    EW4AllBangladeshCycloneLast-Mile

    Applies E = P × C × A to Bangladesh's cyclone corridor, arguing that local-language training and trust-building outperform additional satellite capex on cost-per-life-saved.

  • 2026

    Poland–Romania–Ukraine (PRU) Transboundary Resilience Protocol→

    NGL Fellowship · Assignment #3

    TransboundaryEastern EuropeInteroperabilityEspoo

    Introduces I_xb = (D_shared + L_aligned) / H_diff and applies it to a Cascading Freeze scenario; drafts AECS Article 12 for the PRU Mutual Assistance Treaty.

  • 2026

    Analyzing Global Risks Through Hazard Information Profiles (HIPs)→

    NGL Fellowship · literature review + presentation

    UNDRR-ISCHIPsMulti-HazardMachine-Readable

    Walks the 281-hazard, 8-cluster HIPs taxonomy; profiles MH0703 Storm Surge; traces a cascade into coastal erosion and waterborne disease; and assesses the 2025 machine-actionable release for AI-augmented early warning.

  • 2026

    Designing a Climate-Resilient and Inclusive City — Philadelphia→

    NGL Fellowship · 1,500–2,000 word paper + City Vision presentation

    C4015-Minute CityUrban PlanningTOD

    Diagnoses car-dependency and uneven heat/flood exposure in Philadelphia; references Barcelona Superblocks, Medellín green corridors, and Paris 15-minute policies; closes with three actionable steps a Mayor can take.

  • 2026

    World Cities Report 2026 — NGL Response Framework→

    NGL Fellowship · WUF13 / WCR 2026 response · paper + deck

    UN-HabitatWCR 2026WUF13Informality

    Three deliverables — Informality Mapping & Incremental Upgrading; Housing-Emissions Retrofit Strategy; Eviction Prevention & Human Rights Audit — evaluated against a 5-criterion NGL competency framework.

  • 2026

    ReliefWeb × Dataminr 'AI for Good' Pilot — Sector Review→

    NGL Fellowship · sector case-study brief

    AI for GoodHumanitarian TechLLMReliefWeb

    Documents how the pilot addressed the language gap (Arabic / Portuguese / Ukrainian → English) and the data-silo problem (PDF-buried statistics) and translates 'failing forward' into reusable lessons for EW4All-adjacent work.